Six Scenarios of the Stormy Nagata Castle, the Dawn of the Two Major Political Parties Era in Japan

 ＜Domanmaru Kagetora and the Page's Nonsense 0270＞episode270,season3

(The Reiwa Travelogue of a Tensho Warring States Page)

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Kasugayama Castle, Narumi Shogunate (Established 1587)

Lord: Uesugi Domanmaru Kagetora

Travelogue and Nonsense Review: Page Nishina Genta

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◆Tensho 452, October 29

"Six Scenarios of the Stormy Nagata Castle, the Dawn of the Two Major Political Parties Era in Japan"

Hinomoto, a defeated nation in the last war 80 years ago, has only been given substantial autonomy by the victorious nations, and is still treated as a former enemy nation by the United Nations. Germany and Italy are under the surveillance of the US military, just like Japan. If asked whether they prefer a democratic or communist state, most people would choose the former, but in the first quarter of the 21st century, I don't think that democracy has taken root in Japan's politics. In other words, it is still in its infancy. Before Arthur C. Clarke's "The End of the Childhood of the Earth" comes, we should settle on "the end of Japan's childhood," "the end of Japan's secret funds problem," "the end of Japan's illusion of Abenomics cult politics," and "the end of the perpetuation of the Japan-US Status of Forces Agreement through the transition from Japan's GHQ to the Japan-US Joint Committee." The results of Ishiba's blinding Japan early death dissolution election in 2024 record the historical fact that the ruling party failed to win a majority. The minority ruling party will have to walk a tightrope until the 2025 House of Councillors election, but Ishiba-dono has already decided to approve the first batch of illicit money House of Councillors members. This could be the reason why the ruling party, which has a smaller majority in the House of Representatives, will also lose a majority in the House of Councillors. The beginning of the end of the Japanese one-party dictatorship will be the arrival of two major parties and the foundation for a mature government. That's what the Lord of the Palace has said.

If the Reiwa Shogunate is in a minority ruling party position, if the opposition coalition issues a motion of no confidence in the cabinet, which may come at any time, it will lead to the collapse of the government, and ultimately the wishes of the disaster-stricken areas who want support as soon as possible will not be fulfilled, which is a cause for concern. At the moment, it's a power struggle in Nagata Castle that no one can predict, but I intend to submit to the Lord of the Palace as much as I can imagine. In addition to the six scenarios, there are also major political restructuring movements. It is also possible that the LDP and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan will split into three major groups. It could be a storm in Nagata Castle. I'm tired of the unimaginative reporting in the newspaper.

<Scenarios for future politics>

1) The LDP + Komeito + independents will include some of the opposition parties in a coalition.

★ Likelihood of realization: 20%.

It is hard to imagine that the Democratic Party for the People would be willing to betray the feelings of its supporters in order to join a coalition, but it is not impossible that they could join a coalition even if it means being prepared to criticize leader Tamaki. The Democratic Party for the People will essentially disappear.

2) The LDP + Komeito + independents will explore a partial coalition with some of the opposition parties.

★ Likelihood of realization: 50%.

If the Democratic Party for the People were to join a partial coalition, it would be viewed by the public in the same way as the ruling party, which has been exposed for its secret funds and the former Unification Church, so the party could be destroyed in next year's House of Councillors elections and the next general election.

3) In addition to the above two scenarios, there is also the possibility of a rebellion by Takaichi and Aso, who fought in the presidential election. In the nomination of prime minister, multiple candidates from the ruling party will run, completely splitting the ruling party.

★ Likelihood of occurrence: 50%.

4) A repeat of the Hosokawa coalition government. Noda will not be nominated as prime minister, and the leader of another small party will be brought forward. This may be the final battle to test Ozawa's skills.

★ Likelihood of occurrence: 50%.

5) A motion of no confidence in the cabinet will be passed quickly, and another general election will be held.

★ Likelihood of occurrence: 50%.

6) A grand opposition coalition will be the main axis, and the LDP and Komeito will be involved in the cabinet. The prime minister will be chosen from the opposition. An LDP-centered coalition is good, but an opposition-centered coalition is also conceivable.

★ Likelihood of occurrence: 20%.

<Summary>

Looking at the news in the newspapers after the general election, it seems that interest is focused on the measures to maintain the LDP as the ruling party, but that is only on the surface. We must not forget the position of Ozawa-san's grand opposition coalition government behind the scenes. When the previous Hosokawa administration was born, Hosokawa-san of the Japan New Party, who secured the fourth-highest number of seats among the eight parties, was chosen. Behind the scenes, Ozawa-san's strong arm was present. The LDP's strategy to surround the Democratic Party for the People for the prime minister nomination election in the Diet is just to get 28 votes. The partial coalition may be a facade. If that happens, the Democratic Party for the People will be destroyed. Because the people who supported them will rebel. I am relieved that the people's civility and dignity have been maintained thanks to you all going to the polls sincerely. There is a reason for the low overall voter turnout. This is because LDP and Komeito supporters punished the ruling party by abstaining or casting blank ballots. Without this, the voter turnout would have been around 70%. There is a strong possibility that the ruling and opposition parties will reverse their positions in the 2025 House of Councillors elections.

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＜道満丸景虎と小姓の戯言0270＞episode270,season3

（天正戦国小姓の令和見聞録）

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　春日山城、鳴海幕府（開府1587年）

　お屋形様：上杉道満丸景虎

　見聞録及び戯言検め：小姓 仁科源太

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　◆天正四百五十二年　十月二九日

 

「風雲急永田城６つのシナリオ、日の本の二大政党時代の黎明期」

 

　八〇年前の先の大戦で敗戦国となった日の本は戦勝国からの実質的な自治権を与えられているだけで、未だに国際連合では旧敵国条項扱いでござる。独逸や伊太利亜の国では日の本の国と同様、米軍の監視下に置かれておる。大抵の領民は民主主義国家が良いのか共産主義国家が良いのかと問われれば、前者を選ぶと思うのでござるが、二十一世紀の第一四半期に於いても日の本の政は未だにその民主主義とやらが根付いているとは到底思えぬ。つまり未だに幼年期というわけでござる。アーサー・C・クラーク殿の「地球幼年期の終わり」が来る前に「日の本幼年期の終わり」、「日の本裏金問題の終わり」、「日の本幻想のアベノミクスカルト政治の終わり」、「日の本GHQから日米合同委員会への移行による日米地位協定の永続化の終わり」に決着をつけるのが筋というものじゃ。二〇二四年の石破殿の目眩まし日本早逝解散選挙の結果では見事な与党過半数割れという歴史的事実を記しておる。少数与党政権で二〇二五年での参議院改選まで綱渡りの政をせねばならぬが、石破殿は裏金参議院議員の第一次公認を早々と決めておる。このことは、衆議院で少数過半数割れ与党が参議院でも過半数割れ与党になる起因ともなりえる。「日の本一党独裁政権の終わり」の始まりが二大政党の到来と成熟した政の布石となる。お屋形様はそう申しておる。

令和幕府が少数与党という立ち位置では、いつ訪れるかわからぬ内閣不信任決議案を野党連合から出された場合は政の崩壊を招き、ひいては一刻も早い支援を希望する被災地からの願いも叶わぬという事態になる憂慮すべきことになる。今は誰にも予想ができぬ永田城の権力争いではござるが、想像できる範囲でお屋形様には上奏するつもりじゃ。6つのシナリオ以外にも、政界大編成の動きもござる。自民党と立憲民主党がそれぞれ分裂し、三大グループになることも考えられる。まさに風雲急永田城、大嵐になるやもしれぬ。かわら版の想像力のない報道には飽き飽きしてござる。

＜今後の政局のシナリオ＞

１） 自民党＋公明党＋無所属に野党の一部を連立に組み入れる。

★実現度：20％。

国民民主党が支持者の気持ちを裏切ってまで連立入り覚悟があるとは到底思えぬが、玉木党首に批判覚悟での連立入もありえぬ訳では無い。国民民主党は実質的な消滅となる。

２） 自民党＋公明党＋無所属に野党の一部とパーシャル連立を模索する。

★実現度：50％。

仮にもし国民民主党がたとえ一部の連立に加わった場合には、裏金・旧統一教会で晒されている与党と同じ目線で国民から注視されるから、来年の参議院改選や次回での総選挙では党の壊滅もあり得る。

３） 前記の二つのシナリオに、総裁選で戦った高市殿・麻生殿の叛乱もあり得る。首班指名では与党から複数の立候補がでて、与党は完全に分裂する。

★実現度：50％。

４） 細川連立政権の再現。野田党首を首班指名とはせず、他の小さな政党の党首を担ぎ出す。小沢殿の手腕が試される最後の戦いとなるやもしれぬ。

★実現度：50％。

５） 早々と内閣不信任決議を可決させ、再度総選挙を行う。

★実現度：50％。

６） 野党大連立を主軸にして、自民・公明にも閣内に参画してもらう。首班は野党から出す。自民党中心も良いが野党中心も十分考えられる。

★実現度：20％。

 

＜総括＞

総選挙後のかわら版の報道を見ておると、自民党の与党政権維持のための方策に関心が行っておるようじゃが、それは表向きの事でござれば、小沢殿の水面下での野党大連合政権の立ち位置も忘れてはならぬ。以前の細川政権の誕生では八会派での４番目の議席を確保した日本新党の細川殿に白羽の矢を立てたのでござる。その裏では剛腕の小沢殿の存在があった。国会での首班指名選挙のための自民の国民民主の囲い込み戦略は28票が欲しいだけのことでござる。パーシャル連立は見せかけかもしれぬ。もしそうなったなら国民民主は壊滅状態となろう。なぜなら支持した領民が反発するからじゃ。そなた達が真摯に投票所にいったおかげで領民の民度と品位は保たれて、拙者は安堵しておる。全体の投票率が低かったのには理由がござる。自民・公明支持者の棄権や白紙投票で与党へのお仕置きをしたからでござる。それがなければ有に投票率は七十％ほどになっておったであろう。2025年の参議院改選選挙では与野党逆転の公算は大でござる。

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