The new history eyes...0045(final version)

★ 2021 Results of the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election

1st time: 1st place is Kishida, 2nd place Kono, 3rd place Takaichi, 4th place Noda. In the parliamentary vote, Mｓ. Takaichi got unexpected support and came in second. Mr. Kono did not grow unexpectedly and was in third place.

Second time: Mr. Kishida and Kono's final vote. Mr. Kishida 257, Mr. Kono 170. Therefore, the new president is decided to be Kishida.

* Mｓ. Takaichi was a candidate for foam at one point, but he was fighting quite well. I want her to be the 101st female prime minister in Japan in the next presidential election. She is expecting.

THE NEW HISTORY EYES

Presented by hirotsugu nishina

 

Vol.0045…『必見、完全予測2021総裁選』（Moyurupen Gate版）

 

2021年9月29日の自由民主党総裁選の戦いが繰り広げられている。各メディアでは誰が次期総裁に選ばれるか予測が出来ない状況らしい。これまでの派閥力学が通用しなくなり、票読みの難しさが迷走に拍車をかけている。しかしながら、歴史の潮流から見れば自ずとその結果は見えてくる。Moyurupenでは2016年の大統領選で三ヶ月前にドナルド・トランプ氏が当選する予測をブログやYouTubeで公開した。結果はドナルド・トランプ氏がヒラリー・クリントン氏には99％勝ち目がないという大手メディアの予測を覆し、大統領に当選した。2020年のコロナ禍での大統領選では、ジョー・バイデン氏が当選したが、これも数ヶ月前に予測していた。2021年自由民主党の総裁任期切れによる総裁選には4人の顔ぶれが揃ったが、なんとなく勝負は候補者が出そろった段階で決まっている様に見えた。ただ、そのなんとなくが大事で、日頃の議員の切磋琢磨や信条・努力というものが会見や有権者への接し方で、議員票や党員票への影響が極めて大きくなっている。フルスペックで行われる今回の総裁選では、河野氏が一回目の投票で決したいという希望は叶えられそうもない。官僚への高圧的なパワーハラスメント、親族企業の中国傾斜、政策の極端な改革案、聞く耳持たないパーソナリティ、などで党員や議員の支持離れが加速している。ある意味、ヒラリー・クリントン氏の残像と重なる面が多いので、一回目の投票で過半数は無理だと言わざるを得ない。ワクチン担当大臣としても評価は高くないし、党員支持が右肩下がりの状況下にある。決選投票では、細田・麻生・他の派閥も髙市氏支持に回る。岸田氏は一回目も一位は考えにくい。決選投票には駒を進めない可能性はある。中国に加え台湾もTPPに参加申請をしたが、髙市総理になれば台湾加入も促進されるに違いない。対中国にはバイデンの支持がなくても牽制を続けるだろう。小石河連合は結局無力だったと総裁選の結果で示されるに違いない。マスメディアがこぞって、迷走報道を行っていて大胆な総裁選の結果シミュレーションも発信できないのはとても残念だ。一番に感じるのは髙市氏が安倍氏の駒に過ぎないという見方をする勢力（NHK・民放）が、河野氏・岸田氏の一騎打ちという印象操作を展開しているのは問題だ。安倍氏には岸田氏にしろ髙市氏にしろ院政を敷きたいという野望を感じるが、河野氏や岸田氏が仮に次期総裁・総理になったら自由民主党は野党に再び転落するに違いない。そういう観点から私は総裁選の勝者はズバリ髙市早苗氏だと思っている。

THE NEW HISTORY EYES

Presented by hirotsugu nishina

 

Vol.0045… "Must-see, complete prediction 2021 presidential election" (Moyurupen Gate version)

 

The battle for the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election on September 29, 2021 is unfolding. It seems that it is impossible to predict who will be elected as the next president in each media. Factional mechanics up until now is no longer valid, and the difficulty of reading votes has spurred straying. However, the results can be seen naturally from the historical trend. Moyurupen posted on his blog and YouTube the prediction that Donald Trump will win the 2016 presidential election three months ago. The result was that Donald Trump was elected president, overturning the big media's prediction that Hillary Clinton wouldn't win 99%. Joe Biden won the 2020 Corona presidential election, which he had predicted a few months ago. In 2021, the Liberal Democratic Party's term of office expired, and there were four members in the election, but it seemed that the game was decided when all the candidates were available. However, somehow it is important, and the daily competition, beliefs, and efforts of the members of the Diet are the way of interviewing and dealing with voters, and the influence on the members'votes and party members' votes is extremely large. In this full-spec presidential election, Mr. Kono's desire to vote in the first vote is unlikely to be fulfilled. High-pressure power harassment of bureaucrats, China's inclination of relatives, extreme policy reform proposals, and deaf personality are accelerating the disapproval of party members and lawmakers. In a sense, it often overlaps with the afterimage of Hillary Clinton, so I have to say that the majority cannot be voted in the first vote. He is not well-received as the minister in charge of vaccines, and his support for party members is declining. In the final vote, Hosoda, Aso, and other factions will also support Mｓ. Takaichi. Mr. Kishida is unlikely to be number one even the first time. There is a possibility that you will not be able to advance the pieces to the final vote. In addition to China, Taiwan has also applied for participation in the TPP, but if it becomes Prime Minister Takaichi, it must be promoted to join Taiwan. China will continue to check without Biden's support. The result of the presidential election must show that the Koishikawa Union was powerless after all. It's a shame that the mass media are all reporting strays and can't even send out simulations as a result of the bold presidential election. The first thing I feel is that the forces (NHK / commercial broadcasters) who think that Mｓ. Takaichi is nothing more than Mr. Abe's piece are developing the impression operation of Mr. Kono and Mr. Kishida in a single combat. Mr. Abe has an ambition to establish a cloister rule, whether it is Mr. Kishida or Mｓ. Takaichi, but if Mr. Kono and Mr. Kishida become the next presidents and prime ministers, the Liberal Democratic Party must fall into the opposition again. From that point of view, I think the winner of the presidential election is Sanae Takaichi.